It’s a silent nation of jobless Americans

What candidate Trump would say about President Trump’s economic record

buy canada goose jacket The president often suggests that the current economy is a sharp turnabout from the Obama canada goose outlet black friday years, even though the canada goose outlet toronto location economy he inherited from President Barack Obama was already doing pretty well, with low unemployment, low inflation and a roaring stock market. buy canada goose jacket

canada goose coats on sale There might be a reason Trump believes that the economy has sharply improved he canada goose vest outlet constantly said the Obama economy was terrible. He even had the fake facts canada goose outlet phone number to prove it. canada goose coats on sale

We debunked many of Trump’s economic claims during the campaign. But we wondered how today’s economy would look if canada goose outlet online store the canada goose outlet online uk numbers were canada goose outlet london calculated under the same metrics used by candidate Trump.

Canada Goose Parka The ‘phony’ unemployment rate «Our real unemployment rate is 42 percent.» Canada Goose Parka

canada goose clearance Trump, in an interview with Time magazine, posted Aug. 18, 2015 canada goose clearance

«Our real unemployment is canada goose outlet factory anywhere from 18 to 20 percent. Don’t believe the 5.6. Don’t believe it.»

Trump, in his campaign announcement speech, June 16, 2015

Canada Goose Outlet «They have this phony number, 5.2 percent. Everybody canada goose parka uk that quits looking for a job is considered statistically a person that has a job. It’s a phony number. You probably real number’s like 22, 23 percent.» Canada Goose Outlet

Canada Goose Jackets Trump, speech at Liberty University, Jan. 18, 2016 Canada Goose Jackets

The unemployment rate in July was listed as 3.9 percent, just slightly canada goose outlet real above an 18 year low of 3.8 percent reached in May. The unemployment rate was 4.8 percent when Trump took the office, down from a high of 10 percent in Obama’s first canada goose discount uk year.

Canada Goose online We should note that the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not come up with the definition of «unemployed» canada goose outlet mississauga out of thin air. It reflects an internationally embraced definition set by the International Labor Organization canada goose outlet online in 1982. For the record, the BLS also produces a broader unemployment rate, which includes people who work part time because they can’t get a full time job. That rate was 7.5 percent in July, compared with 9.4 percent when Trump took office (and 17.1 percent at its height under Obama). Canada Goose online

canada goose clearance sale But Trump repeatedly knocked the official unemployment rate as a «phony number» when he ran for president. He was not consistent in explaining what he considered the canada goose outlet winnipeg real number his figures ranged from 18 to 42 percent so here’s what today’s 3.9 percent rate would look like under Trump’s campaign canada goose outlet in montreal math. canada goose clearance sale

For the lower figure, we will take the number of unemployed and then add people who work part canada goose outlet time (either for economic reasons, such as slack business conditions, or for noneconomic reasons) and people marginally attached to the labor force (such as those who want to work but are discouraged). Then we measure that against the total canada goose outlet toronto size of the civilian workforce. That gives us a rate of nearly 21 percent.

canada goose deals Trump’s high end figure of 42 percent was calculated by determining the percentage of the population canada goose outlet 2015 that was not in the labor force canada goose outlet washington dc (including retirees and students) as compared with the entire civilian non institutional population. It was a crazy way to do it, but that was how Trump did his calculation. canada goose deals

As of July, that rate would be 37 percent.

So if Trump were running canada goose outlet in canada against himself, he presumably would decry an «unemployment canada goose uk site rate» of 21 to 37 percent while denouncing 3.9 percent as phony.

canada goose black friday sale ‘A silent nation of jobless Americans’ «Right now, 92 million Americans are on official canada goose outlet the sidelines outside of the workforce, and they’re not a part of our economy. It’s a silent nation of jobless Americans.» canada goose black friday sale

canada goose store Trump, speech to the Economic Club of New York, Sept. 15, 2016 canada goose store

Trump, in a major speech, conjured up a «a silent nation of jobless Americans» using a particularly misleading statistic canada goose outlet near me people who are not in the labor canada goose outlet usa force. More than 90 percent of these canada goose outlet uk people do not want a job, because they are retired, in school, on disability or taking care of young children, according to a BLS analysis.

canada goose coats With the retirement of the baby boom generation, more people keep dropping out of the labor force. So the number of Americans supposedly not part of the economy now stands at 96 million. That’s an increase of 4 percent. canada goose coats

Candidate Trump might be angry with President Trump for his failure to deal with this problem.

African American youth unemployment «Look at how much African American communities are suffering from Democratic control. canada goose outlet in uk Fifty eight percent of your youth is unemployed, what the hell do you have to lose?»

buy canada goose jacket cheap Trump, rally in Dimondale, Mich., Aug. 19, 2016 buy canada goose jacket cheap

canada goose This was one of the more cynical calculations done by the Trump campaign. Again, it involves counting people «not in the labor force» as part of the unemployed. canada goose

Canada Goose sale «Not in the labor force» refers to people who are canada goose outlet legit not looking for jobs because they have given up looking canada goose jacket outlet store or are not interested such as students. Students working part time while going to school canada goose outlet official are counted in the «employed» category. Canada Goose sale

canadian goose jacket That means Trump was counting students who are not looking for work as part of the «unemployed» population. Technically, those students don’t have jobs. But that does not fit the definition of «unemployed» and is especially problematic for this age group, because the number of people who aren’t looking for work includes people who are in canada goose outlet florida school full time and may be doing extracurricular activities but have no interest in or need for a job. canadian goose jacket

Trump’s claim of 58 percent youth unemployment thus turned out to be almost three times the official rate for black youths at the time.

At his rallies, Trump frequently brags that the unemployment rate for African Americans has hit an all time low since it first was calculated starting in 1972. But by his own campaign math, the numbers turned worse under his canada goose outlet store uk watch: Black youth «unemployment» was 77 percent in 2017.

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